AI-Powered Forecasting Enhances Market Accuracy for The Oil Market Journal

The Oil Market Journal (OMJ) was founded to provide oil distributors and large-volume buyers with real-time assessments of refined oil product trading. Over the years, the company has expanded its offerings to include foreign exchange prices, market news, and advanced analytics. As a licensed data provider for industry leaders such as SPGCI Platts and Argus Media, OMJ has built a strong reputation for delivering reliable market intelligence.

The Challenge

The primary challenge lies in the limitations of OMJ’s current forecasting model, which relies on static, rule-based logic within Excel. This approach is restrictive, lacks adaptability, and does not fully leverage the vast datasets available for market analysis. The need for a more dynamic and predictive solution is crucial to improving accuracy and efficiency in assessing energy price trends.

The Solution

Working with data scientists from the Hartree Centre Northern Ireland Hub, OMJ began transitioning from manual, rules-based forecasting to a dynamic, AI-driven model. A structured, multi-stage process was used to identify key data inputs, clean and consolidate raw data, and train advanced machine learning models. Both technical indicators and time-series data were tested and refined through iterative experimentation, ensuring predictions accurately reflected live market conditions. The new forecasting framework remains interpretable, allowing OMJ’s analysts to understand and validate AI-generated insights while benefiting from faster, more accurate results.

OMJ

Joel Honeyman, The Oil Market Journal

“The transition to an AI-driven forecasting model has been a seamless and highly professional experience. The Hartree team was incredibly friendly, timely in their responses, and flexible in adapting to our data's unique complexities. This project has not only delivered a superior forecasting framework but has and will continue to significantly boost our in-house AI expertise, positioning us to better compete in the market.”


Project Impact

The integration of AI and ML into OMJ’s forecasting processes allows them to remain competitive by offering superior forecasting tools. Interpretable directional accuracy enables OMJ analysts to be more confident in market outlooks, increasing information value when sharing market direction predictions with clients. The flexible architecture also reduces manual workload previously required for rule-based updates, improving efficiency and consistency in reporting, and allowing analysts to focus on strategic tasks. In the longer term, this project lays the groundwork for continued iterative improvement within OMJ’s data analytics operations. The modular framework supports ongoing experimentation with additional features or future data, providing them with the tools to compete against larger firms investing in AI. As data volume increases, model performance is expected to improve further, ensuring that OMJ maintains a competitive edge in predictive market analysis.

Further Information

This work was completed as one of our data projects. Our projects are up to 12 weeks in duration. We will work alongside your business to scope your project, demonstrate proof of concept, and explore options to deploy it within your business. If you would like to learn more about the Hartree Centre Northern Ireland Hub and our Programme, please get in touch with us at: info@hartreeni.uk

Our Impact on UK Industry and Society

The Hartree National Centre for Digital Innovation enables businesses to acquire the skills, knowledge and technical capability required to adopt digital technologies like super computing, data analytics, artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing. The SME Engagement Hubs play a key role in offering targeted support for business challenges in their region, creating value and generating economical and societal impact for the UK.